***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 24.6 24.6 25.5 -2.1 25.4 29.7 25.4 26.9 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 24.4 24.5 25.5 -2.0 26.7 30.8 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 24.4 24.5 25.5 -2.1 26.1 30.3 25.2 26.7 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 18.2 17.9 23.9 -2.3 22.7 27.3 18.9 20.3 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 25.4 25.3 24.0 -2.1 25.2 29.6 26.1 27.6 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 24.6 25.1 22.6 -1.5 30.4 34.5 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 24.2 24.4 25.5 -1.9 27.4 31.4 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 13.9 14.2 22.7 -1.7 28.9 33.1 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 24.6 24.8 24.2 -2.1 26.1 30.4 25.4 26.9 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 24.7 25.0 23.2 -1.8 28.0 32.2 25.5 26.9 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 25.0 25.2 23.7 -1.9 27.2 31.5 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 24.4 24.7 23.7 -1.9 27.3 31.8 25.2 26.7 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 25.4 25.6 23.2 -1.9 26.7 31.3 26.2 27.7 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 24.1 24.7 24.1 -1.6 31.3 34.5 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 25.8 25.4 24.3 -2.4 21.0 25.4 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 25.9 26.2 23.6 -2.0 26.3 30.8 26.8 28.3 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 23.6 24.1 25.4 -1.7 30.3 33.8 24.4 25.8 27.2 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 23.7 24.2 22.6 -1.6 30.6 34.3 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 24.2 24.4 25.6 -2.0 27.2 31.2 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 20.0 20.6 20.9 -1.4 32.4 35.8 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 24.5 24.6 25.0 -2.2 25.1 29.4 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 24.2 24.5 25.3 -1.7 30.3 33.8 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 24.3 24.5 25.4 -1.9 28.5 32.3 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 24.0 24.5 24.0 -1.7 29.8 33.5 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 24.7 24.8 24.1 -2.1 25.4 29.6 25.6 27.0 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 25.1 25.3 23.3 -2.0 25.1 30.0 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 24.4 24.6 24.7 -2.0 26.6 30.7 25.2 26.6 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 25.7 25.4 24.2 -2.4 22.0 26.6 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 19.3 19.9 21.7 -1.4 32.3 35.7 20.0 21.5 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 24.4 24.4 25.6 -2.1 25.8 30.0 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------