***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 21.8 21.5 24.3 -2.5 17.6 24.4 23.1 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 21.9 21.7 24.3 -2.4 18.8 25.2 23.3 24.9 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 22.2 22.0 24.4 -2.4 18.9 25.4 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 15.2 14.8 22.9 -2.7 17.0 23.3 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 23.0 22.7 23.0 -2.4 19.7 25.9 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 22.4 22.2 21.7 -1.9 24.4 31.6 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 21.6 21.4 24.2 -2.4 19.0 25.3 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 11.8 11.7 21.9 -1.9 25.0 30.9 12.4 13.7 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 22.5 22.3 23.2 -2.3 20.4 26.5 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 22.5 22.4 22.2 -2.1 23.3 29.1 23.3 24.7 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 23.0 22.7 22.8 -2.2 22.3 28.4 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 22.6 22.3 22.8 -2.1 23.5 29.6 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 23.8 23.3 22.4 -2.2 22.1 28.9 24.3 25.5 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 22.2 22.4 23.0 -1.9 25.0 29.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 23.1 22.6 23.3 -2.8 15.0 21.5 24.2 25.5 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 23.9 23.6 22.7 -2.3 21.2 27.8 24.7 26.0 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 21.5 21.5 24.1 -2.2 20.9 26.9 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 21.7 21.8 21.6 -1.8 25.9 31.2 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 21.7 21.6 24.4 -2.4 19.6 25.9 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 18.1 18.2 20.0 -1.6 28.2 33.7 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 22.4 22.1 23.9 -2.5 18.6 25.0 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 21.8 21.9 24.1 -2.1 21.3 27.3 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 21.9 21.9 24.3 -2.2 21.4 27.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 22.0 22.1 23.0 -2.0 24.0 29.4 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 22.4 22.1 23.0 -2.5 17.8 24.4 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 23.4 22.9 22.5 -2.3 20.8 28.3 24.0 25.2 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 22.0 21.8 23.6 -2.4 18.4 25.1 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 23.3 22.8 23.2 -2.7 16.6 23.0 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 17.1 17.4 20.8 -1.7 27.5 32.6 17.9 19.3 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 21.7 21.4 24.4 -2.5 18.1 24.6 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------