***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 26.1 25.6 25.7 -2.1 13.6 17.9 26.8 27.7 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 25.9 25.4 25.6 -2.3 12.0 16.5 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 26.1 25.6 25.8 -2.1 13.6 17.9 26.7 27.5 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 19.1 18.7 24.4 -2.1 14.0 18.0 19.9 20.8 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 26.7 26.3 24.5 -1.9 16.0 20.0 27.4 28.3 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 25.8 26.0 23.4 -1.0 30.3 33.8 26.1 27.0 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 25.7 25.2 25.5 -2.2 12.8 17.3 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 15.0 14.9 23.3 -1.4 23.5 27.2 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 26.0 25.8 24.8 -1.9 16.0 20.0 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 26.0 25.8 23.7 -1.6 19.8 23.7 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 26.3 26.1 24.4 -1.7 19.2 23.2 27.0 27.9 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 25.7 25.6 24.3 -1.5 21.5 25.5 26.3 27.2 28.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 26.8 26.7 24.0 -1.5 22.0 26.1 27.4 28.3 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 25.9 25.6 24.4 -1.6 19.0 23.5 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 26.7 26.1 25.0 -2.2 12.6 16.5 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 27.3 27.2 24.3 -1.6 20.3 24.4 28.0 28.9 29.8 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 25.3 24.9 25.3 -2.0 13.8 18.6 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 25.2 25.1 23.0 -1.4 22.7 26.7 25.7 26.5 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 25.6 25.0 25.6 -2.2 12.8 17.3 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 21.4 21.6 21.6 -0.9 30.9 34.2 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 26.0 25.6 25.5 -2.1 14.2 18.3 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 25.8 25.4 25.2 -2.0 13.9 18.8 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 25.8 25.4 25.6 -2.0 14.8 19.3 26.5 27.2 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 25.6 25.3 24.4 -1.6 18.9 23.2 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 26.2 25.7 24.5 -2.0 14.6 18.9 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 26.5 26.4 24.1 -1.6 21.1 25.4 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 25.9 25.5 25.1 -1.9 15.2 19.6 26.6 27.4 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 26.7 26.3 24.8 -2.1 14.3 18.3 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 20.6 20.7 22.3 -1.2 26.3 30.2 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 25.7 25.1 25.7 -2.3 12.1 16.4 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------