***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.2 8.0 98.5 64.9 53.1 2.6 5.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.4 7.7 82.8 58.9 47.3 2.3 5.2 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.7 7.7 91.6 62.3 50.8 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 4.6 5.4 57.6 50.6 41.8 1.9 4.5 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 4.6 4.4 6.9 72.3 55.5 47.9 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.4 4.5 48.8 45.1 38.9 2.6 5.3 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.3 8.4 85.6 59.7 47.6 2.2 5.0 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 8.8 6.3 64.6 50.8 41.5 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 5.8 6.9 8.2 88.4 61.6 53.2 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.2 7.7 74.1 56.2 47.3 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.4 5.5 63.9 52.7 43.3 2.3 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.0 3.3 4.0 48.8 43.3 34.2 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.8 2.0 3.4 39.6 35.7 30.6 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 10.8 13.1 10.5 97.6 64.1 53.5 5.2 8.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.6 4.4 48.8 45.4 35.9 1.9 4.4 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.0 2.9 4.8 55.5 46.6 39.3 1.5 3.3 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.2 8.3 86.0 60.4 49.3 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.7 8.3 71.3 54.3 46.3 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.9 7.8 88.3 60.9 49.5 2.9 6.1 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 7.3 7.0 64.0 49.1 40.9 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.6 8.7 7.2 89.0 61.2 49.7 2.6 5.6 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.5 8.3 81.5 59.2 50.8 2.7 5.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.0 8.8 102.2 66.0 53.0 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.3 11.4 9.1 88.4 61.0 51.1 4.2 8.1 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.2 7.8 79.9 57.4 47.7 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.0 1.9 2.2 27.1 28.6 23.3 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 11.5 9.1 94.3 63.1 52.1 2.8 6.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.2 3.8 4.2 47.7 45.4 35.5 2.0 4.5 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 9.7 9.2 8.9 73.8 55.0 48.0 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.3 7.8 86.8 60.7 49.5 2.3 5.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------