***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 1.9 8.3 7.1 106.3 66.8 45.9 2.1 4.5 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 11.4 9.3 107.8 67.4 49.8 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.7 7.8 103.0 66.0 46.4 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.1 9.9 7.4 105.0 66.6 43.8 2.2 5.0 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.0 7.2 8.3 107.4 67.4 46.7 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 1.8 8.0 12.7 109.2 68.2 47.1 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.5 14.1 9.9 114.9 69.4 51.6 2.4 6.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.7 12.2 9.9 93.1 63.5 44.9 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.9 11.5 8.7 108.3 68.0 48.7 2.2 5.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.8 8.6 10.6 95.7 64.7 46.6 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.0 8.4 8.6 107.4 67.8 45.0 1.8 4.1 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.0 6.4 7.6 100.8 65.6 42.9 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.9 6.5 8.2 96.1 63.6 40.3 1.8 4.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.5 14.5 11.1 93.4 63.5 48.5 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.7 8.8 7.2 113.2 69.5 45.1 1.7 4.0 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.1 8.0 8.4 107.0 67.2 44.4 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.4 12.3 10.9 111.7 69.2 53.0 2.8 6.2 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 11.4 80.3 59.3 46.3 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.8 10.2 8.9 106.2 67.1 48.5 2.3 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.6 10.9 78.9 57.3 45.2 1.8 4.8 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.3 9.4 7.0 104.0 66.0 44.0 2.2 4.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.7 14.9 11.3 110.7 69.1 52.6 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.8 10.9 8.5 101.0 65.8 46.0 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.5 9.2 10.5 88.6 62.1 47.8 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.5 7.7 90.2 61.7 46.0 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.7 5.1 5.8 88.7 61.4 38.4 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.8 8.4 99.0 64.6 47.4 3.6 6.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.8 7.7 7.8 114.4 69.6 43.1 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.2 11.7 80.7 59.2 46.3 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.9 8.7 107.9 67.2 48.1 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------