***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.3 18.8 9.0 109.3 69.3 44.7 5.5 10.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.3 15.9 9.9 103.9 67.0 44.0 3.9 8.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.0 19.9 9.0 98.6 66.2 43.9 4.8 10.7 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.7 16.8 7.9 89.8 64.4 42.4 4.9 10.2 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.3 16.6 8.1 87.9 63.7 43.7 4.7 9.9 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.5 17.5 13.2 120.0 71.8 47.1 4.1 8.3 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.6 12.1 9.6 106.5 67.5 44.3 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.2 23.6 8.4 78.7 60.3 44.2 9.4 17.3 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 6.1 18.3 8.4 86.7 63.7 44.9 6.0 11.6 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.3 18.5 9.1 80.3 61.3 45.2 6.6 12.9 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.9 14.7 7.1 80.6 61.7 42.0 5.5 10.2 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.7 6.6 81.6 61.0 41.4 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.1 16.1 9.4 104.0 68.0 44.4 3.5 7.9 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.3 22.7 11.8 94.7 65.7 49.1 6.5 13.1 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.9 7.1 6.8 85.6 63.7 42.4 1.6 3.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.1 14.8 8.3 92.8 65.7 44.3 3.3 7.8 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.8 9.2 95.0 64.2 43.1 4.6 8.4 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 15.0 11.2 82.7 61.8 49.0 6.2 10.8 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.8 15.3 10.1 105.1 67.8 44.8 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.0 20.8 11.9 86.0 61.9 49.2 10.1 15.6 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.2 17.6 7.8 90.9 64.7 42.8 5.1 10.5 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.1 15.1 9.6 96.5 65.1 43.4 5.1 9.4 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 5.9 19.8 10.4 105.6 68.6 47.0 5.8 11.0 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.9 21.2 10.3 85.4 63.0 47.6 7.3 13.8 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.4 19.0 9.6 97.2 66.3 45.4 4.7 10.4 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.6 16.8 8.4 130.4 73.3 43.6 3.3 7.2 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.5 20.1 10.3 107.0 68.8 46.5 5.1 10.4 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.2 10.5 7.6 88.6 64.8 41.7 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 25.0 11.9 87.8 62.7 50.1 9.3 17.0 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.0 13.7 9.9 107.7 68.2 44.9 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------