***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.0 6.7 97.7 65.0 46.9 2.6 5.3 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.7 9.9 8.5 117.6 70.2 51.7 2.0 4.4 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.8 10.1 7.2 105.2 66.6 48.3 2.8 5.8 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.3 20.2 8.7 125.8 72.5 51.1 4.8 9.6 16.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 12.1 8.0 106.1 67.7 49.1 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.1 17.3 10.6 112.3 69.5 48.6 3.5 8.1 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.7 10.2 8.2 106.0 67.2 51.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.3 24.3 9.9 102.0 65.6 46.1 7.4 14.5 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.3 7.8 96.0 65.0 47.5 3.9 7.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.5 9.9 98.8 65.1 47.3 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.1 12.6 7.5 102.7 66.5 44.5 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.7 16.6 7.8 110.5 68.3 45.1 4.3 8.8 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.9 15.8 8.5 118.8 70.4 46.4 4.3 8.3 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.7 15.9 11.3 121.8 71.1 52.6 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.2 14.0 9.2 146.3 76.8 48.1 2.0 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.6 14.4 7.8 110.6 68.5 45.4 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.9 13.5 9.5 121.2 71.4 51.8 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 14.7 11.9 99.9 65.2 50.1 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.2 14.5 8.3 124.1 71.6 50.6 2.9 6.4 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 16.6 13.6 99.5 64.8 48.9 4.7 9.7 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.8 6.8 94.4 64.9 46.3 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.3 17.5 10.5 134.5 74.3 50.2 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.8 12.9 8.4 129.5 72.8 49.9 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.0 14.0 9.8 104.8 66.5 50.6 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.2 13.3 8.8 115.8 70.2 52.1 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.4 13.9 6.7 128.0 72.8 45.4 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 10.6 8.4 107.6 67.7 50.6 2.6 5.5 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.5 13.5 8.5 127.4 72.8 47.4 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 21.9 12.7 99.4 65.0 50.1 6.5 13.1 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.2 11.9 7.9 114.3 69.1 51.4 2.6 5.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------