***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 41.9 46.8 30.8 103.1 62.5 53.7 24.7 36.2 50.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 43.2 46.9 35.4 102.2 61.3 53.3 27.4 38.3 50.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 51.4 53.7 31.6 99.3 60.3 51.7 30.2 43.7 59.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 53.4 53.8 29.4 91.7 58.9 50.9 35.7 47.0 59.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 40.2 40.3 31.3 92.0 58.0 51.1 22.4 34.0 47.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 22.9 46.7 41.0 99.3 61.4 51.2 22.2 35.5 52.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 41.6 45.5 36.0 102.7 61.4 53.6 25.3 36.5 49.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 76.8 71.1 34.5 84.6 53.4 47.0 48.8 67.2 87.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 48.0 49.0 33.1 94.3 58.7 52.1 29.4 41.6 55.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 55.1 52.2 37.4 87.1 54.6 48.5 37.2 48.8 61.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 41.1 39.7 28.7 87.8 56.3 48.4 25.5 35.4 47.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.1 39.1 26.0 84.3 54.3 45.7 26.2 36.2 47.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.9 39.2 29.6 88.6 55.5 45.3 23.3 34.7 48.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 64.0 66.9 44.8 100.7 60.6 53.6 42.7 57.1 72.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 14.7 32.6 27.6 93.6 60.4 50.0 14.5 24.7 37.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 23.2 40.2 29.3 90.3 57.1 48.4 22.7 34.5 48.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 40.6 43.4 37.9 102.7 61.4 53.3 27.1 36.4 46.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 52.2 44.9 42.9 83.4 50.8 46.1 30.7 44.2 59.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 44.9 50.0 35.2 104.8 62.8 54.5 28.0 39.5 52.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 60.8 54.5 43.3 83.1 50.1 46.0 41.5 54.5 68.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 46.3 46.9 28.8 94.2 59.0 51.3 26.2 39.0 54.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 50.6 54.3 39.7 104.2 62.1 54.5 34.2 45.4 57.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 46.1 51.7 36.2 108.3 64.5 55.8 29.6 40.6 53.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 58.6 56.8 39.7 91.2 55.6 49.5 38.4 51.8 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 45.5 45.6 33.8 94.8 58.4 50.9 25.2 38.1 53.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 21.8 35.6 23.0 87.7 55.4 43.8 23.0 32.3 43.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 49.7 53.9 36.2 101.7 61.4 53.3 29.3 43.0 59.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 19.4 35.4 28.2 91.2 58.8 49.3 19.7 29.4 41.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 74.7 66.7 45.1 85.4 51.3 47.0 48.2 65.1 84.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 41.2 44.9 34.3 103.5 61.9 53.6 26.7 36.7 48.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------