***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 9999.0 16.3 18.5 1.0 72.5 67.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.0 17.8 0.5 63.3 59.7 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 18.8 19.1 18.3 0.9 73.2 67.6 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.4 16.5 1.0 76.1 70.6 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.1 16.6 0.8 73.2 68.5 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.0 14.6 0.8 72.0 67.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 16.5 16.6 18.3 0.8 69.9 64.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.8 14.3 0.6 67.5 63.8 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.5 17.1 1.0 76.7 71.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.1 15.2 0.7 71.3 66.6 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 15.5 15.6 15.9 0.7 69.8 65.5 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.7 15.1 0.7 69.9 66.1 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 14.8 14.9 15.1 0.8 73.0 69.5 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.3 16.3 0.5 63.9 60.0 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 17.3 18.1 18.4 1.4 85.0 79.0 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.6 16.9 15.9 0.9 75.8 71.2 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.5 17.3 0.3 60.0 57.0 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.3 14.1 13.9 0.5 66.1 62.5 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.1 17.9 0.6 65.4 61.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.9 11.9 0.4 62.3 60.2 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 15.8 16.1 18.1 0.9 74.1 68.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.4 17.6 0.5 63.4 60.0 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 15.5 15.7 17.9 0.7 70.5 65.4 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.2 16.2 0.6 68.2 63.5 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 16.0 16.3 17.4 0.9 71.9 66.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.9 14.5 0.6 66.3 63.6 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 16.5 16.9 17.8 0.9 71.1 66.2 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.3 17.2 1.0 78.1 72.8 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.1 13.4 0.6 69.7 65.0 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.6 18.3 0.7 67.7 63.3 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------