***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 16.4 17.8 1.6 80.5 71.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 14.7 15.4 17.6 1.5 77.8 69.2 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 17.0 17.8 17.7 1.6 81.1 72.3 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 12.5 13.0 15.6 1.2 76.3 69.9 10.1 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 13.7 14.2 15.4 1.3 77.6 70.9 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 12.8 13.1 13.6 1.1 75.3 67.7 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.6 17.7 1.5 78.1 69.7 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 8.2 8.7 13.6 1.3 78.3 70.4 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.5 15.9 1.5 80.2 72.6 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 14.6 15.1 14.2 1.3 79.5 71.6 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 14.3 15.0 15.1 1.4 81.7 73.7 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 12.7 13.2 14.5 1.3 80.2 72.6 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.2 13.8 1.1 77.4 70.0 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.8 15.7 1.3 78.9 70.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 16.0 16.7 16.7 1.5 81.3 73.8 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.8 14.6 1.2 78.8 71.3 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 15.2 15.6 17.0 1.3 75.3 67.2 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.6 13.4 1.2 77.6 70.1 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.5 17.6 1.5 78.7 69.9 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 9.3 9.4 11.7 0.9 71.7 65.3 7.6 8.4 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 14.4 15.1 16.9 1.5 79.9 72.0 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.1 14.5 16.9 1.3 75.8 67.3 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 14.2 15.0 17.3 1.6 80.5 71.4 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 14.9 15.5 15.6 1.4 80.4 72.0 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.5 16.3 1.6 81.0 73.3 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.7 13.9 13.8 0.9 71.2 65.9 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 15.1 16.0 17.0 1.6 81.0 72.6 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 13.8 14.3 16.0 1.2 77.1 70.2 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.8 12.8 1.2 77.4 69.8 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 15.1 15.9 17.9 1.5 79.1 70.3 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------