***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 12.6 16.0 0.5 59.0 57.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.4 15.9 0.4 57.6 55.9 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.8 15.9 0.6 60.4 58.1 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.7 13.9 0.2 54.3 53.8 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.1 13.7 0.3 55.6 54.8 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 8.9 10.1 11.9 0.2 54.4 54.6 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.6 15.9 0.4 57.6 56.0 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.7 11.8 0.2 55.4 54.9 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.3 14.1 0.4 58.1 56.8 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.0 12.4 0.3 56.0 55.4 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.8 13.3 0.4 58.9 57.2 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.1 12.8 0.4 58.2 56.9 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.0 12.2 0.3 57.0 56.1 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.0 14.0 0.4 59.5 57.6 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.1 14.9 0.4 59.3 57.7 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.6 13.0 0.4 58.1 56.5 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.8 15.3 0.2 54.2 53.6 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.8 11.6 0.2 55.2 55.0 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.7 15.9 0.5 59.2 57.1 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.7 10.1 0.1 52.1 52.3 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.0 15.1 0.4 58.2 56.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.0 15.3 0.3 55.8 54.9 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.3 15.6 0.6 61.9 59.1 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.4 13.8 0.5 59.4 57.7 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.5 14.5 0.5 59.1 57.4 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.3 12.5 0.4 57.6 56.7 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.1 15.2 0.5 59.1 57.2 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.7 14.2 0.2 55.1 54.4 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.7 11.1 0.2 54.6 54.6 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.0 16.1 0.5 58.9 56.9 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------