***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 15.6 17.8 1.2 86.1 77.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 14.7 15.1 17.6 1.0 80.5 71.8 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 17.0 17.6 17.7 1.2 86.5 77.3 15.9 16.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 12.7 13.1 15.7 0.9 81.3 74.9 11.4 12.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 13.4 13.7 15.6 0.9 81.7 74.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 12.4 12.6 13.8 0.9 80.5 74.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.3 17.7 1.0 82.1 73.6 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 8.1 8.4 13.7 0.9 80.9 73.4 7.0 7.5 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 14.6 15.0 16.1 1.1 85.8 77.7 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 14.4 14.7 14.3 0.9 83.2 75.1 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 14.0 14.5 15.2 1.0 84.5 76.8 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 12.2 12.6 14.6 1.0 83.0 75.9 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 13.3 13.6 14.0 0.9 81.3 75.2 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 15.0 15.4 15.7 0.9 82.5 72.9 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 15.7 16.3 17.0 1.3 88.3 81.6 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 15.0 15.3 14.9 1.0 83.6 77.0 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.3 17.0 0.8 77.1 69.2 14.2 14.6 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 12.9 13.2 13.4 0.8 80.1 72.2 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 14.7 15.0 17.5 1.0 82.2 73.2 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 8.8 8.9 11.6 0.6 73.8 67.2 7.9 8.3 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 14.2 14.6 17.1 1.1 85.4 77.1 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.3 17.0 0.8 77.8 69.9 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 14.1 14.5 17.4 1.1 85.2 75.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 14.6 15.1 15.6 1.0 84.4 75.3 13.6 14.0 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 14.5 14.9 16.4 1.2 86.2 78.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 13.5 13.6 13.9 0.7 75.2 71.0 12.6 13.0 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 15.0 15.5 17.0 1.2 86.1 77.7 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 13.3 13.6 16.2 1.0 82.4 76.1 12.2 12.6 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.5 12.8 0.8 80.6 71.7 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 15.0 15.5 17.8 1.1 82.8 74.0 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------