***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 31.4 29.5 1.8 79.4 73.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 30.8 31.0 29.2 1.3 71.8 66.9 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 30.8 31.3 29.4 1.5 75.4 69.9 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 24.4 24.9 27.7 1.7 77.3 73.1 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 31.8 32.3 28.1 1.6 75.3 71.2 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 30.1 30.4 25.4 1.3 72.0 69.2 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 30.4 30.8 29.1 1.4 73.4 68.5 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 19.0 19.2 25.8 1.2 69.1 66.1 16.6 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.9 31.5 28.8 1.6 76.6 71.8 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 30.6 31.0 26.8 1.4 73.2 69.1 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 31.3 31.6 27.7 1.5 73.7 70.1 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.7 27.1 1.4 72.2 69.2 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 32.0 32.3 27.4 1.7 76.1 73.0 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 30.6 30.5 27.4 1.0 67.3 63.3 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 31.8 32.6 29.7 1.9 80.9 76.7 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 32.6 33.1 27.8 1.7 77.1 73.6 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 30.1 30.3 28.6 1.2 71.2 66.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 29.5 29.5 25.5 1.1 68.5 64.8 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 30.4 30.7 29.2 1.3 71.9 66.8 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 24.6 25.4 23.4 1.0 65.4 62.9 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 30.9 31.3 29.3 1.4 74.3 69.4 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.8 30.8 28.6 1.2 69.8 65.4 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 30.5 30.7 29.0 1.3 72.1 66.9 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 30.1 30.2 27.3 1.1 69.0 64.7 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 31.3 31.9 28.3 1.6 77.9 72.5 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 31.3 31.5 26.8 1.4 71.6 69.2 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 30.8 31.4 28.7 1.6 78.1 72.5 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 31.8 32.2 28.5 1.6 76.5 72.7 29.0 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 24.1 25.0 24.5 1.0 66.8 63.5 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.7 31.0 29.4 1.4 73.6 68.6 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------