***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 27.9 28.7 2.2 79.3 72.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 28.3 28.8 28.6 2.1 76.5 69.7 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 28.2 28.9 28.7 2.1 77.8 70.5 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 21.5 21.9 27.0 1.7 74.2 68.3 18.3 19.7 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 29.1 29.4 26.9 1.7 74.3 68.1 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 27.6 27.9 24.5 1.4 72.3 66.4 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 28.0 28.7 28.5 2.1 77.7 70.8 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 17.1 17.3 25.0 1.5 72.1 66.1 14.2 15.5 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 28.3 28.8 27.2 1.9 75.8 68.9 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 28.3 28.6 25.7 1.7 73.9 67.4 25.0 26.5 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 28.8 29.3 26.5 1.8 75.8 69.0 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 28.0 28.4 26.2 1.7 74.2 67.9 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.5 25.8 1.7 74.2 67.9 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 28.1 28.6 26.5 1.8 74.7 67.6 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 28.9 29.6 27.7 1.9 77.9 71.2 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.1 26.3 1.7 74.8 68.4 26.4 27.9 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 27.6 28.0 28.1 2.0 76.4 69.7 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 27.2 27.4 24.7 1.6 72.1 66.0 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 28.1 28.6 28.6 2.0 76.4 69.4 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.2 23.2 22.4 1.2 67.7 62.7 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 28.4 29.1 28.1 2.0 76.9 70.0 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 28.1 28.4 28.0 1.9 75.2 68.4 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 28.1 28.7 28.3 2.0 76.6 69.3 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 27.8 28.3 26.6 1.9 75.2 68.2 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 28.5 29.4 27.3 2.1 79.0 71.8 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 28.5 28.6 25.7 1.3 69.7 65.0 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 28.0 29.0 27.9 2.2 79.7 72.2 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 28.9 29.3 27.2 1.6 74.1 68.2 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 22.7 22.8 23.6 1.5 71.0 65.0 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 28.1 28.8 28.8 2.1 77.1 70.2 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------