***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 25.4 27.2 1.1 64.3 61.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 22.7 25.6 26.8 0.7 59.6 57.1 23.1 24.7 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.9 27.2 1.1 63.7 60.1 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.2 25.5 0.7 59.2 57.1 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.2 25.4 0.9 61.2 58.5 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.2 23.3 0.9 63.0 59.9 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.4 26.7 0.8 60.0 57.6 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.0 14.4 23.6 0.8 60.9 58.0 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.5 26.0 25.8 1.0 63.2 59.9 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.1 25.5 24.4 0.9 62.0 58.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.6 26.1 25.1 1.0 63.4 60.1 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 25.0 25.4 24.8 0.9 62.8 59.7 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.4 24.5 1.0 63.8 60.6 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 22.6 25.6 25.2 0.9 61.4 57.6 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.9 26.1 26.1 0.8 60.6 58.0 24.0 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.5 27.0 24.9 1.0 63.2 60.0 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 22.3 24.7 26.2 0.5 57.0 55.2 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.3 24.5 23.4 0.8 60.8 57.6 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 22.5 25.5 27.0 0.8 60.6 57.6 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.2 20.5 21.1 0.5 57.9 55.4 18.4 19.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.5 26.0 26.6 1.1 63.3 60.1 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 22.6 25.2 26.2 0.5 56.9 54.7 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 22.6 25.6 26.8 1.0 62.4 58.6 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.4 25.2 1.0 62.7 58.9 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 25.5 25.9 25.7 1.0 63.0 60.1 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.8 24.3 0.7 60.4 58.3 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 26.4 25.9 26.3 1.1 63.6 60.6 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.0 25.7 0.7 59.4 57.2 24.1 25.4 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 17.4 20.0 22.3 0.7 59.7 56.7 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.2 25.6 27.1 0.9 61.3 58.5 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------