***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 10.9 7.8 71.1 54.4 45.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.7 10.4 94.5 62.7 47.0 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.3 8.2 78.3 57.0 44.8 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.5 6.7 65.6 52.0 42.0 1.8 4.2 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 1.3 3.6 7.0 70.8 53.4 41.5 1.4 3.0 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.5 7.8 74.3 57.2 45.5 1.8 4.2 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.2 9.7 80.6 58.1 46.3 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.4 10.3 8.4 83.3 58.2 45.6 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.8 7.0 73.0 53.3 40.7 2.0 4.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.3 8.8 81.2 56.6 43.8 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.6 6.9 77.7 57.1 43.9 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.4 6.2 73.9 55.5 43.4 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.2 6.5 65.2 51.2 39.3 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.1 12.4 97.9 62.8 47.6 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.2 4.9 53.6 46.1 36.4 1.7 3.9 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.2 2.9 6.3 68.6 53.2 40.4 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.5 10.4 98.1 63.5 44.9 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.1 10.9 88.8 59.2 46.7 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 8.9 10.7 98.5 64.1 47.3 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.3 10.1 84.3 57.7 46.4 3.0 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.5 7.7 7.3 78.4 57.1 45.5 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.1 7.1 11.4 113.9 68.1 46.9 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.9 11.0 96.4 63.5 47.3 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.4 10.6 90.9 60.4 47.1 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.6 8.4 70.9 54.3 45.5 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.9 3.4 5.3 59.5 47.9 37.6 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 9.0 7.4 8.6 69.0 53.7 45.6 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.7 3.7 5.9 62.5 50.5 39.1 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.1 11.5 92.7 60.8 48.3 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.7 9.6 84.4 59.3 46.6 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------