***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 10.1 8.9 111.0 69.0 41.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.8 11.4 9.8 112.3 69.0 43.1 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.3 12.2 9.8 117.2 70.5 43.3 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.6 12.9 10.1 117.9 70.7 40.3 2.6 5.8 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 1.7 7.1 10.9 122.5 72.2 41.6 1.8 3.4 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.1 8.5 12.5 100.7 66.2 42.8 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.5 13.4 9.3 104.9 67.6 44.4 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.7 15.5 11.0 113.1 69.1 44.9 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.5 13.6 11.5 126.6 72.9 42.8 2.0 5.2 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.4 10.2 12.4 121.9 71.5 44.4 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.0 8.7 9.3 112.1 69.6 42.2 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.8 6.6 8.1 103.3 66.8 41.4 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.0 7.3 9.9 97.2 65.4 41.2 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.3 17.7 13.5 117.8 70.1 45.4 4.2 8.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.9 8.6 8.4 107.3 68.0 40.3 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.5 8.4 9.5 103.4 67.2 41.2 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.2 11.7 9.6 102.8 66.8 43.3 3.3 6.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.1 17.4 15.1 130.3 73.3 46.4 2.9 6.8 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.6 12.4 10.1 118.5 70.5 43.5 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.8 14.8 15.9 124.0 71.5 48.5 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.7 11.9 9.7 119.5 71.3 41.2 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.1 18.0 10.7 119.8 71.0 44.9 3.7 8.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.3 13.9 10.6 124.2 72.1 44.4 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.8 12.6 13.2 124.6 72.0 46.2 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.3 9.6 10.4 113.7 69.6 43.6 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 1.9 6.8 8.1 100.8 66.0 42.5 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.3 11.9 10.0 110.4 68.7 43.5 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.1 8.5 9.5 111.6 69.3 39.7 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.1 17.8 15.7 128.6 72.8 47.3 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.0 8.4 9.8 115.8 70.0 43.9 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------