***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 11.3 7.5 101.5 65.5 39.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.5 13.7 7.5 89.1 61.7 38.5 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 4.4 16.8 7.1 93.2 63.2 38.7 4.5 10.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.0 19.8 7.8 110.5 68.3 40.9 4.9 10.4 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.6 20.5 8.1 108.9 68.0 40.4 5.3 11.1 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.9 13.3 10.4 90.3 62.2 43.4 4.5 8.9 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.2 9.6 7.6 88.4 61.9 39.2 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 9.2 24.6 8.8 91.9 62.9 42.5 8.9 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 6.2 20.4 8.2 106.8 67.5 39.2 6.5 12.1 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.9 19.7 9.1 94.1 63.3 41.3 6.6 12.7 21.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.0 16.5 6.9 95.8 64.5 39.8 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.2 13.9 7.2 98.6 65.2 40.7 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.0 15.8 8.5 99.1 65.1 42.8 4.4 9.2 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.2 19.4 9.4 91.1 62.1 40.6 5.9 12.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.0 7.9 6.5 107.4 66.9 40.6 1.8 4.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.7 16.3 7.6 99.3 65.0 41.5 4.2 9.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 4.9 13.0 7.4 84.2 60.4 37.2 5.7 9.8 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 14.3 10.7 92.3 62.2 42.5 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.5 12.1 7.2 86.6 60.9 37.9 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 17.6 18.5 11.3 88.8 61.1 45.6 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.3 17.4 7.3 105.8 67.2 38.5 4.9 9.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 5.0 13.2 7.4 82.8 59.4 37.1 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.8 14.1 7.1 84.9 60.5 37.7 4.7 9.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 6.7 20.6 9.2 92.7 62.5 40.1 6.3 13.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 4.0 16.9 8.2 98.2 65.1 40.9 3.9 9.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.8 12.4 6.8 96.3 63.8 39.5 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.4 15.7 8.2 94.2 63.5 40.1 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 12.2 7.5 109.8 67.9 40.9 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.4 23.5 10.9 89.6 61.3 43.5 9.1 16.6 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.4 12.7 7.5 92.0 62.7 39.0 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------