***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 6.3 5.9 76.2 58.6 36.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.8 7.0 7.4 99.9 64.7 40.1 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.5 8.3 6.7 85.9 61.4 38.7 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.1 13.3 5.9 81.6 60.6 36.0 4.5 9.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.1 9.9 6.6 84.9 61.8 37.7 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 2.7 14.5 9.7 100.8 66.7 36.0 3.3 7.7 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.8 8.9 7.2 94.5 63.2 40.0 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 6.4 27.3 8.6 106.7 67.4 41.5 7.1 14.6 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 3.2 10.1 7.2 85.2 62.1 38.9 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 3.6 13.9 8.9 98.5 65.7 41.7 4.2 8.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.4 11.7 6.5 97.4 65.1 37.2 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.5 14.7 6.3 100.9 65.6 37.3 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 3.8 13.5 7.0 95.2 64.1 34.8 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.6 15.0 11.6 114.8 69.8 46.2 3.8 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.5 7.7 5.3 88.0 62.7 36.4 1.8 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 3.4 13.0 6.5 96.2 64.9 35.3 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.6 11.9 8.5 122.9 71.2 42.3 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.8 14.9 10.8 102.5 66.7 45.9 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.8 11.1 7.5 100.1 65.0 40.1 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.0 19.7 12.3 112.5 68.8 47.5 5.0 10.2 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.9 9.4 6.4 82.6 61.2 37.8 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.8 15.0 8.6 124.1 71.4 42.4 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.5 9.8 8.2 101.2 65.6 40.5 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.9 12.6 9.7 100.4 66.2 44.4 2.9 6.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.7 9.4 6.7 80.8 60.4 38.2 2.8 6.1 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.8 10.7 6.3 99.0 65.5 36.4 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.5 7.5 6.6 78.0 59.1 37.5 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.9 9.8 5.8 88.5 63.0 35.1 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.6 25.1 12.0 112.5 69.2 47.7 6.5 13.1 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.2 7.9 6.8 88.7 61.4 38.5 2.4 5.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------