***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 44.4 30.1 88.3 53.2 41.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 23.0 41.9 35.2 98.7 57.5 43.7 25.3 36.4 49.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 25.9 44.9 31.8 92.8 54.5 41.4 27.9 41.0 56.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 32.5 52.2 30.6 92.4 56.3 41.4 35.9 47.5 60.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 20.2 38.7 32.6 95.8 57.3 42.2 22.1 33.1 46.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 21.6 38.8 40.4 91.7 54.5 43.9 21.8 34.7 50.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 22.8 37.3 33.8 91.0 52.6 41.5 24.7 35.7 48.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 48.2 78.1 36.7 98.3 58.2 47.4 49.7 68.2 88.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 26.5 47.1 34.0 97.5 58.1 42.5 28.6 40.5 54.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 35.3 55.3 39.1 98.5 58.3 45.7 37.4 49.1 61.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 25.4 40.6 29.6 95.3 57.6 44.3 26.6 35.9 46.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 25.5 40.0 27.8 93.4 56.5 44.7 25.8 35.8 47.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 21.8 37.3 31.9 88.4 53.7 42.0 23.2 34.6 48.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 40.0 66.9 46.9 105.3 61.2 46.6 42.1 56.4 72.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 12.0 25.1 25.0 86.6 51.2 37.2 14.7 24.3 36.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 22.0 38.5 29.9 91.3 55.1 41.9 23.0 34.5 48.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 25.4 41.7 35.9 100.7 58.8 45.0 26.9 36.2 46.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 29.8 52.8 47.5 103.2 60.3 47.6 30.5 43.4 58.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 25.1 44.9 35.4 100.9 58.9 44.2 27.4 38.2 51.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 41.0 62.0 49.6 102.3 59.2 49.2 41.3 54.3 68.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 25.3 45.4 30.7 95.8 57.9 43.0 25.6 38.4 53.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 30.0 53.4 38.2 109.5 63.9 48.2 31.4 42.6 55.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 27.0 46.5 36.9 101.4 58.9 43.8 28.8 39.8 52.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 36.5 59.6 42.6 102.1 59.7 46.1 37.8 50.8 66.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 23.5 39.9 33.7 89.6 53.0 40.9 24.8 37.5 52.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 21.0 32.5 26.5 87.3 53.2 43.2 21.6 30.6 41.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 26.0 41.5 33.5 86.3 51.0 40.8 27.3 40.7 56.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 18.0 32.4 28.7 91.6 55.1 40.1 20.4 29.4 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 47.9 76.8 50.2 105.5 61.4 49.2 48.2 64.3 82.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 23.6 39.3 33.8 94.5 54.9 42.2 25.9 36.0 47.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------