***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 14.3 15.2 17.6 -0.2 46.4 47.0 14.5 15.4 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 13.6 14.4 16.9 -0.5 40.5 42.4 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 16.1 17.3 17.7 -0.3 45.4 46.2 16.5 17.5 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.0 13.7 15.4 0.3 55.7 53.6 12.2 13.4 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 12.3 13.1 15.5 -0.3 45.2 46.3 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 11.8 12.9 13.6 0.4 57.7 55.1 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 14.0 14.7 16.9 -0.6 39.4 41.6 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.4 13.4 -0.1 49.0 49.6 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 13.8 14.6 15.7 -0.1 47.4 47.7 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 13.7 14.5 14.1 -0.1 48.8 49.2 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 13.0 13.7 15.1 -0.4 42.1 44.1 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.2 14.3 -0.1 47.3 48.3 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 12.4 13.1 13.8 -0.2 45.1 46.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.7 14.9 -0.6 37.9 41.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.1 17.4 0.4 57.2 54.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 14.0 14.8 14.6 -0.2 46.3 47.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 14.4 15.1 16.5 -0.6 38.5 41.0 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 11.8 12.6 13.1 -0.2 45.4 47.0 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 14.1 14.8 17.0 -0.5 40.8 42.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.1 8.8 11.3 -0.1 47.0 48.4 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 13.3 14.2 16.8 -0.2 46.4 46.8 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 13.3 13.8 16.6 -0.7 37.8 40.2 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 13.5 14.1 17.1 -0.6 39.6 42.1 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.6 15.1 -0.4 42.6 44.7 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.7 16.6 -0.1 48.8 48.7 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.0 14.0 13.6 0.3 55.2 53.6 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.9 15.2 17.0 -0.1 47.9 48.0 14.1 15.3 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.7 16.0 0.4 56.8 54.1 12.6 13.4 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 11.5 12.5 12.5 -0.2 45.2 47.1 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 14.2 15.1 17.3 -0.4 42.2 43.8 14.5 15.5 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------