***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.3 15.1 17.9 1.1 69.8 63.5 13.1 14.0 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.8 17.6 1.1 68.8 62.6 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 16.9 17.1 18.2 1.1 70.6 64.2 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.5 13.0 15.7 1.4 76.4 70.1 10.1 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.7 15.3 1.0 68.9 64.1 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 12.7 13.0 13.8 1.1 73.4 67.7 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.9 17.6 0.9 66.9 61.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 8.2 8.2 13.5 1.0 71.1 65.0 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.9 15.5 1.0 70.4 65.0 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 14.6 14.7 14.1 1.1 72.5 66.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.2 14.9 0.9 67.3 62.9 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.5 14.1 0.8 66.7 62.0 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.5 13.1 0.6 63.1 59.5 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.6 15.1 15.2 0.8 66.9 62.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.4 17.1 1.4 76.7 70.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.1 14.2 0.8 67.2 62.7 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.5 15.1 17.2 0.9 67.5 61.4 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.2 13.0 1.0 71.3 65.2 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.8 17.6 1.0 68.6 62.7 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 9.2 9.2 10.8 0.8 69.2 63.2 7.6 8.4 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 14.4 14.5 17.0 1.1 70.5 64.5 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.6 14.0 17.0 0.9 66.8 61.4 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.2 17.5 0.9 66.8 61.8 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.9 15.2 1.0 70.6 64.8 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 14.8 15.0 16.6 1.3 73.2 66.6 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 13.7 13.7 13.3 0.9 67.7 63.1 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.3 17.2 1.2 71.8 65.2 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 13.8 14.3 16.0 1.4 76.4 70.3 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.3 12.5 0.9 70.2 64.2 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.4 15.2 17.9 1.1 69.1 62.9 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------