***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.6 16.4 0.7 61.8 57.5 10.9 11.9 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.8 12.6 16.0 0.5 59.8 56.0 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.7 15.1 16.7 0.7 63.7 59.4 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 10.6 10.7 14.2 1.0 69.6 64.2 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 11.9 11.6 14.1 0.8 65.0 61.2 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.7 10.7 12.5 0.8 67.6 63.5 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 11.1 12.7 16.1 0.5 59.0 55.6 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.3 12.2 0.8 65.7 62.2 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 13.0 12.8 14.2 0.8 66.0 61.7 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 12.7 12.6 12.8 0.8 66.7 62.8 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.1 13.7 0.7 64.8 61.4 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.4 12.9 0.7 64.3 61.2 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.8 11.3 12.0 0.6 61.9 59.2 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 11.5 13.1 13.9 0.5 60.2 57.7 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.6 15.7 1.1 71.2 65.4 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 13.1 12.9 13.1 0.8 65.5 61.8 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 11.5 13.1 15.7 0.5 59.7 55.8 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 11.7 11.4 11.7 0.7 65.0 61.9 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.7 16.1 0.6 60.4 56.6 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 7.6 7.2 9.6 0.6 62.0 60.0 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.4 15.5 0.7 64.1 59.9 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.2 15.7 0.6 60.7 56.6 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.2 16.0 0.5 59.9 56.7 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 12.9 12.7 13.8 0.7 64.5 61.0 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.8 15.1 0.8 64.0 59.4 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 11.7 11.5 12.0 0.7 63.2 60.2 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.4 15.7 0.7 62.6 58.2 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 11.3 11.4 14.6 1.1 70.5 64.9 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 10.6 10.2 11.2 0.6 62.6 60.3 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 11.2 13.1 16.3 0.6 60.5 56.6 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------