***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 14.8 15.0 18.1 1.1 77.2 71.6 13.7 14.2 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.7 17.5 0.8 71.8 67.0 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 17.0 17.2 18.2 1.0 75.9 70.9 15.9 16.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 12.7 13.1 15.7 1.2 82.4 76.3 11.4 12.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 13.3 13.5 15.8 0.9 75.7 70.6 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 12.4 12.7 13.8 1.1 83.5 77.4 11.5 11.9 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 14.8 14.8 17.6 0.7 68.8 64.6 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 8.1 8.4 13.7 1.0 80.4 74.3 7.0 7.5 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 14.5 14.8 16.0 1.0 79.3 74.1 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 14.4 14.7 14.5 1.1 81.6 75.7 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 13.8 14.0 15.3 0.7 70.9 66.8 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.1 12.3 14.5 0.9 75.6 70.3 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.3 13.8 0.6 70.5 65.7 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.0 15.4 0.7 71.4 67.0 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.1 17.4 1.2 83.2 77.1 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 14.8 14.9 14.6 0.7 71.9 67.1 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 15.1 15.1 17.1 0.7 69.8 65.2 14.2 14.6 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 12.9 13.2 13.4 0.9 78.7 72.7 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 14.6 14.7 17.6 0.8 71.7 67.1 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 8.9 9.1 11.5 0.9 79.5 72.9 7.9 8.3 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.3 17.2 1.0 76.8 71.4 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.0 14.0 17.1 0.7 68.1 64.2 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.1 17.6 0.7 69.7 65.5 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 14.6 14.8 15.5 0.9 76.5 71.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.7 17.0 1.1 79.5 73.5 13.5 13.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.5 13.7 13.7 1.0 79.9 73.5 12.6 13.0 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.2 17.5 1.1 78.7 73.0 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 13.2 13.6 16.1 1.2 82.5 76.6 12.2 12.6 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 12.2 12.4 12.8 0.9 78.6 72.6 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 15.0 15.1 17.9 0.9 72.7 68.0 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------