***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 31.3 31.7 30.4 2.0 75.8 73.2 28.5 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 29.7 30.6 29.7 1.2 66.3 64.3 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 30.7 31.0 30.4 1.8 72.3 70.0 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 24.7 26.2 28.5 3.0 88.5 84.6 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 31.8 32.2 28.8 1.8 74.2 71.8 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 30.7 32.6 27.8 3.1 91.3 87.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 29.3 30.2 29.5 1.2 66.3 64.4 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 19.6 20.1 27.4 2.3 79.9 77.5 16.6 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 31.0 31.4 29.7 1.9 76.0 73.5 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 31.0 31.7 28.2 2.4 81.0 78.3 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 31.1 31.1 29.1 1.3 68.1 66.5 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 30.7 31.1 28.7 2.0 76.8 74.5 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 32.1 32.7 29.8 2.3 80.3 77.1 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 29.4 30.2 28.2 1.0 64.5 62.5 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 32.0 33.2 31.6 2.8 86.4 82.9 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 32.6 33.0 29.2 1.9 76.2 73.5 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 29.0 29.7 29.0 1.1 64.4 62.5 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 29.6 30.4 26.9 2.1 78.3 75.1 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 29.3 30.2 29.8 1.2 66.2 64.3 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 26.1 27.2 25.5 2.5 84.0 80.8 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 31.0 31.4 30.2 1.9 74.8 72.3 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 29.6 30.3 28.8 1.0 63.5 61.8 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 29.4 30.2 29.8 1.2 65.1 63.4 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 47 53 100 30.0 30.5 28.8 1.6 72.1 69.2 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 31.1 31.5 29.1 1.8 74.1 71.6 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 31.9 33.4 29.5 3.2 88.6 85.5 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 30.7 31.2 29.6 1.9 75.5 72.9 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 32.1 33.5 29.9 2.9 88.3 84.4 29.0 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 25.2 26.0 26.2 2.1 78.0 74.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 29.5 30.6 30.0 1.4 68.5 66.5 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------