***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.9 29.8 29.0 0.4 54.9 54.1 28.1 29.5 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 27.3 28.8 28.6 -0.1 49.2 49.5 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 27.4 29.3 29.3 0.3 54.1 53.5 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 24.3 24.1 27.5 1.5 68.8 64.2 21.0 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 31.6 30.5 27.8 0.5 57.0 56.5 28.5 29.9 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.0 26.1 1.2 67.8 63.2 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 26.9 28.4 28.4 -0.1 48.2 48.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 19.3 18.5 26.3 0.7 58.8 58.0 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 30.8 29.9 28.4 0.7 59.1 57.9 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 30.6 30.1 27.1 1.0 62.7 60.4 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 27.8 29.7 27.9 0.1 51.9 53.1 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.0 29.2 27.5 0.4 55.3 55.6 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 28.0 30.3 27.5 0.3 54.4 55.0 28.4 29.9 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.7 27.2 0.0 49.5 50.3 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 31.4 31.0 29.6 1.1 64.6 61.3 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 32.3 31.1 27.7 0.5 55.9 55.9 29.1 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 26.6 28.0 28.1 -0.1 48.3 48.6 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.3 28.8 26.1 0.8 60.5 58.6 26.6 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 26.9 28.5 28.8 -0.1 49.3 49.6 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 22.3 24.9 24.0 0.7 59.5 58.1 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 27.5 29.7 28.9 0.5 56.1 55.4 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.2 28.6 28.1 0.0 49.6 49.3 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 27.2 28.5 28.9 -0.1 48.3 49.0 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.8 28.9 27.7 0.4 55.2 54.5 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.9 27.7 0.5 56.6 55.8 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 31.1 30.4 27.6 0.8 61.4 59.5 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.5 29.3 28.2 0.4 55.3 54.6 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 31.7 31.5 28.5 1.4 67.8 63.5 28.5 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 21.8 24.3 25.1 0.6 58.4 57.2 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 27.1 28.8 28.8 0.1 50.7 50.8 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------