***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 28.5 28.3 28.9 1.5 68.8 62.9 24.8 26.5 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.0 28.7 1.4 67.9 62.6 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 28.2 28.1 29.3 1.6 69.6 63.4 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 21.4 22.2 27.6 2.2 77.4 70.2 18.3 19.7 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 28.8 29.0 27.6 1.6 70.1 64.4 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 27.5 28.0 25.4 1.7 73.4 68.0 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 27.8 27.6 28.5 1.3 67.1 61.9 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 16.8 17.0 26.3 1.6 69.2 64.1 14.2 15.5 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 28.2 28.5 28.0 1.9 72.6 66.2 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 28.0 28.5 27.0 2.0 73.3 66.9 25.0 26.5 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 27.4 28.4 27.5 1.4 67.1 62.4 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 26.8 27.7 27.6 1.4 66.7 62.3 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 27.8 28.8 26.7 1.4 67.3 62.8 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 24.4 27.6 26.8 1.2 64.8 60.3 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 28.9 29.6 28.8 2.2 77.7 71.1 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 28.4 29.6 27.3 1.6 70.0 64.8 26.4 27.9 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 27.3 27.2 28.4 1.5 68.5 62.9 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 27.1 27.5 26.1 1.9 72.8 66.1 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 27.9 27.7 28.9 1.4 67.4 62.1 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.2 23.2 23.6 1.5 68.8 63.5 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 28.4 28.4 28.5 1.7 70.5 64.3 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 27.9 27.8 28.3 1.5 68.5 63.0 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 28.0 27.5 28.8 1.2 65.0 60.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 27.8 27.8 27.3 1.7 70.0 63.9 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 28.4 28.6 27.4 1.7 72.2 65.4 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 27.4 28.7 27.6 1.7 71.0 66.2 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 28.0 28.1 28.1 1.6 71.1 64.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 28.8 29.7 28.1 2.2 77.7 70.9 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 22.6 22.7 25.0 1.7 70.2 64.2 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 28.0 27.8 28.8 1.4 67.9 62.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------