***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 28.4 28.6 28.9 1.2 70.6 66.5 26.7 27.6 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 27.6 28.1 28.5 0.9 65.4 61.9 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.3 29.2 1.2 70.2 66.0 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 21.7 22.5 27.3 2.0 84.1 77.6 19.8 20.6 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 29.1 29.3 27.5 1.2 72.3 67.6 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 28.0 28.8 25.7 1.8 84.3 77.6 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 27.3 27.7 28.3 0.8 64.1 60.9 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 17.1 17.4 26.1 1.4 74.6 69.6 15.3 16.1 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 28.4 28.7 28.1 1.5 75.1 70.0 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 28.3 28.8 26.8 1.7 78.5 72.8 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 28.0 28.7 27.6 0.9 66.8 63.3 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 28.0 28.2 27.4 1.1 70.5 66.4 26.2 27.1 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 29.1 29.4 27.2 1.2 71.7 67.2 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.8 26.8 0.7 63.8 60.4 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 29.3 29.9 29.2 1.9 81.8 76.1 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 29.7 30.0 27.4 1.2 72.4 67.7 27.9 28.8 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.9 27.3 28.0 0.8 64.7 61.4 25.9 26.6 27.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 27.3 27.7 25.8 1.5 76.9 70.8 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.8 28.7 0.9 65.3 61.9 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 23.5 24.0 23.7 1.4 76.0 70.2 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 28.4 28.7 28.6 1.3 72.3 67.7 26.7 27.5 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 27.4 27.8 28.0 0.8 65.1 61.7 26.4 27.1 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 27.4 27.7 28.7 0.8 63.2 60.4 26.3 27.1 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 27.8 27.9 27.4 1.2 71.4 66.2 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 28.6 28.8 27.5 1.3 72.6 67.9 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 29.0 29.5 27.5 1.7 79.5 74.0 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 28.1 28.3 28.1 1.2 71.9 67.3 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 29.4 30.1 28.2 2.0 83.8 77.5 27.4 28.2 29.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 22.9 23.2 24.9 1.3 74.8 68.9 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 27.5 28.0 28.7 1.0 66.4 62.9 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------