***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.8 11.9 10.2 111.8 69.3 50.0 2.1 5.2 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.7 14.1 12.7 138.4 75.1 59.2 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.6 10.3 123.2 71.9 52.3 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.0 5.3 5.6 69.8 55.7 39.8 1.8 4.2 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.4 4.8 6.5 84.3 61.3 44.0 1.4 3.0 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 1.9 7.3 7.7 96.6 64.7 41.7 1.8 4.2 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.4 10.7 11.7 125.1 72.4 59.2 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.2 8.4 85.5 60.6 46.0 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.0 7.3 7.8 98.5 65.5 46.7 2.0 4.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.2 8.9 89.4 62.1 46.2 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 1.9 5.4 6.4 88.5 62.5 45.0 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.8 5.1 5.9 83.4 60.1 42.6 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 1.4 5.0 6.3 91.2 63.6 42.4 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.8 15.3 13.5 119.0 70.8 52.5 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.5 4.8 4.4 61.9 55.0 33.6 1.7 3.9 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.2 4.3 6.4 91.5 63.7 43.6 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 7.4 10.7 15.5 172.8 81.4 68.7 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.7 11.7 104.6 65.7 49.0 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 12.6 12.7 135.7 74.5 57.4 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.8 11.6 104.2 65.2 51.8 3.0 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.6 10.9 8.2 101.9 66.6 47.4 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 7.7 11.0 15.7 169.6 80.8 65.5 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.9 11.4 117.5 70.7 53.2 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.0 14.0 11.5 115.8 69.8 51.6 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.5 7.0 8.1 81.3 60.4 43.3 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.5 4.6 4.3 69.7 56.7 37.0 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.5 11.3 9.5 94.6 64.2 46.8 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.5 5.3 70.2 56.6 37.6 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 11.5 12.7 112.4 67.9 51.2 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.9 13.6 11.0 118.7 70.8 54.0 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------