***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 1.8 8.7 8.6 113.4 69.3 41.0 2.2 4.5 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.5 7.9 103.3 66.5 43.1 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.1 10.4 8.5 100.9 65.5 41.5 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 2.0 12.1 8.6 112.7 69.0 34.3 2.6 5.8 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 1.4 5.8 7.6 102.8 66.1 36.0 1.8 3.4 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 1.7 6.3 7.2 77.8 57.6 34.3 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.9 14.2 8.4 113.7 69.2 45.8 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 3.1 10.5 7.0 79.2 57.9 35.1 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 1.8 9.4 7.4 93.2 63.4 35.9 2.0 5.2 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 2.1 7.3 7.8 86.4 61.0 37.0 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 1.7 6.3 6.9 88.4 60.6 34.1 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 1.7 5.0 5.8 79.8 57.9 32.7 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 1.8 7.0 6.8 98.2 64.5 34.0 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 4.1 14.9 10.4 99.1 65.2 41.0 4.2 8.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 1.6 10.3 8.6 125.8 72.7 34.6 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 2.0 7.2 6.6 93.0 62.5 31.4 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.1 10.9 7.8 97.7 64.8 42.9 3.3 6.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.1 9.9 8.6 79.6 58.5 38.4 2.9 6.8 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.9 10.6 8.1 102.4 66.2 42.0 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 2.7 8.5 9.1 80.8 57.2 39.1 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.3 9.8 7.9 100.9 65.7 37.8 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.8 14.0 8.1 95.0 64.3 42.4 3.7 8.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.2 12.5 9.2 111.9 68.7 44.1 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 2.6 8.9 8.8 88.3 61.6 38.8 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.0 10.3 10.0 122.5 71.5 40.9 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 1.9 5.5 6.1 82.9 59.4 37.3 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 3.0 12.9 10.1 122.0 71.3 42.8 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 1.7 8.3 7.4 110.7 68.7 32.4 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 3.1 9.1 8.8 75.4 55.7 37.9 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.9 7.7 8.3 108.6 67.9 43.4 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------