***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.4 13.9 9.4 86.5 62.1 38.1 4.7 9.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.5 14.1 9.2 90.0 62.6 39.4 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.3 15.9 9.2 85.9 61.6 36.5 4.5 10.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.9 17.0 8.2 91.1 63.7 34.6 4.9 10.4 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 4.3 15.4 6.9 79.8 59.8 33.9 5.3 11.1 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.9 13.9 8.4 92.8 63.4 38.2 4.5 8.9 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.4 9.7 9.1 89.3 62.2 40.7 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 7.8 19.9 7.1 72.1 55.8 36.5 8.9 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 5.2 16.4 7.6 81.2 60.1 33.0 6.5 12.1 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 5.7 16.9 8.5 78.4 58.5 36.5 6.6 12.7 21.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 4.7 12.7 5.5 69.3 55.9 33.7 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.6 10.5 5.3 72.8 56.9 35.4 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 3.5 13.9 6.3 83.4 61.4 36.5 4.4 9.2 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.4 17.0 10.4 78.2 58.6 37.8 5.9 12.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 1.5 7.9 7.5 100.9 67.0 33.5 1.8 4.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 3.5 13.4 6.0 79.2 59.9 35.1 4.2 9.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 5.3 12.4 8.3 76.9 58.5 37.3 5.7 9.8 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.9 14.3 11.0 89.0 61.8 40.1 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.2 12.2 8.9 86.1 61.3 37.7 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 7.2 17.9 10.4 86.5 59.6 40.9 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.4 15.0 8.6 87.1 62.5 34.3 4.9 9.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 5.3 12.7 8.6 75.9 58.0 36.3 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 4.2 14.1 8.8 83.2 60.6 37.5 4.7 9.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 6.2 19.6 10.2 84.9 61.2 37.8 6.3 13.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.8 16.1 9.7 91.2 63.9 37.2 3.9 9.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 3.2 10.1 4.7 74.8 57.8 34.3 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.1 14.7 9.5 84.4 61.6 37.9 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.6 11.0 7.7 95.3 65.0 34.2 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 8.0 23.5 11.5 90.0 61.4 40.3 9.1 16.6 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 4.3 13.5 9.9 97.2 64.8 40.5 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------