***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.5 8.2 10.0 88.6 62.8 40.6 2.3 5.0 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.9 6.0 8.8 79.7 59.9 40.2 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.8 8.5 9.8 86.6 62.1 42.0 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.2 14.2 10.1 84.6 62.6 42.1 4.5 9.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.2 9.7 9.2 80.9 61.3 40.7 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.5 13.2 11.1 91.5 64.4 41.7 3.3 7.7 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.6 8.3 9.1 82.3 61.0 39.6 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.1 22.1 10.1 86.3 61.4 40.4 7.1 14.6 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.6 9.9 9.9 83.2 61.4 40.9 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.0 12.1 11.1 85.2 61.6 41.5 4.2 8.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.6 10.2 8.1 79.9 60.3 39.1 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.0 12.5 7.7 83.2 60.9 39.8 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.5 13.5 9.4 90.1 64.2 42.1 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.3 12.9 90.3 63.5 44.5 3.8 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.7 6.6 7.4 73.7 58.9 37.1 1.8 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.0 11.2 8.3 79.0 60.3 39.6 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 2.6 8.7 9.3 86.5 62.1 40.6 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.5 12.9 87.1 61.6 44.0 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.0 9.3 8.9 81.2 60.1 41.0 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.4 15.6 13.5 90.5 61.8 43.2 5.0 10.2 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.6 9.9 85.0 62.1 41.7 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.9 11.1 9.7 85.9 61.3 41.5 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.7 9.6 88.0 62.4 41.9 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.2 11.1 11.9 88.9 62.7 43.9 2.9 6.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.0 10.6 10.7 89.6 63.8 42.8 2.8 6.1 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.1 10.6 8.1 94.7 65.2 39.5 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.6 8.9 10.6 90.1 63.6 41.0 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.1 9.1 8.9 78.1 60.6 39.3 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 19.2 13.1 86.9 61.0 43.7 6.5 13.1 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.3 7.8 9.2 81.9 60.7 39.9 2.4 5.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------