***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 22.7 43.2 38.2 98.4 60.0 49.1 23.7 35.3 48.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 43.0 44.5 38.5 101.3 60.6 51.7 25.3 36.4 49.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 27.4 49.5 37.8 97.4 59.5 49.1 27.9 41.0 56.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 33.9 52.5 32.5 88.9 56.6 44.3 35.9 47.5 60.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 21.7 37.1 30.1 85.9 55.4 45.1 22.1 33.1 46.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 21.3 39.3 34.4 89.5 55.4 45.0 21.8 34.7 50.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 24.9 43.6 38.4 100.8 60.5 51.6 24.7 35.7 48.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 49.0 67.4 32.6 80.9 49.6 42.2 49.7 68.2 88.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 47.6 44.8 32.6 88.2 55.6 44.9 28.6 40.5 54.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 55.3 50.8 36.4 84.6 52.3 43.6 37.4 49.1 61.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 26.5 36.8 26.9 81.0 51.5 42.8 26.6 35.9 46.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 25.7 35.8 24.7 79.8 50.2 41.6 25.8 35.8 47.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 22.2 40.3 28.8 90.6 57.1 46.0 23.2 34.6 48.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 63.7 63.2 47.3 95.6 57.6 49.0 42.1 56.4 72.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 14.1 30.2 27.9 88.9 58.3 43.1 14.7 24.3 36.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.2 37.8 27.3 84.9 54.2 44.2 23.0 34.5 48.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 40.4 44.5 40.9 106.1 63.0 54.8 26.9 36.2 46.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 29.8 46.8 44.2 89.8 53.8 45.1 30.5 43.4 58.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 44.7 45.7 38.5 100.1 60.0 51.2 27.4 38.2 51.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 40.5 56.5 44.6 89.9 52.8 46.3 41.3 54.3 68.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 26.0 45.6 34.6 92.6 58.1 47.2 25.6 38.4 53.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 48.3 51.5 42.1 104.2 61.8 53.7 31.4 42.6 55.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 46.0 47.0 39.0 99.0 59.8 50.8 28.8 39.8 52.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 37.3 57.1 42.3 93.6 56.9 47.2 37.8 50.8 66.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 24.4 45.3 38.6 94.6 58.9 47.4 24.8 37.5 52.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 21.3 32.5 23.2 81.8 53.2 43.8 21.6 30.6 41.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 26.5 48.7 39.7 96.0 58.8 48.1 27.3 40.7 56.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 19.3 33.4 29.3 87.1 56.5 43.4 20.4 29.4 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 46.9 68.0 46.1 90.4 53.4 45.4 48.2 64.3 82.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 25.2 43.0 38.3 100.1 60.2 50.6 25.9 36.0 47.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------