***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 15.3 16.2 -1.1 26.1 29.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 14.2 14.3 16.3 -0.9 28.5 32.0 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 17.0 17.4 16.8 -0.6 36.5 38.4 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 12.2 12.4 14.5 -1.0 26.7 29.7 12.8 13.9 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 12.9 13.2 14.9 -0.7 31.9 34.4 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 12.2 12.5 12.9 -0.8 30.7 32.6 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 14.6 14.7 16.4 -1.0 27.9 30.8 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 7.8 8.2 12.9 -0.6 32.5 34.9 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.7 15.5 -0.5 37.7 39.3 14.5 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 14.2 14.6 13.7 -0.5 34.9 36.9 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 13.7 13.9 14.4 -0.8 28.4 31.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 11.9 12.1 13.6 -0.7 30.9 33.5 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.7 14.0 -0.2 43.5 43.6 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.8 15.8 0.0 50.3 49.4 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 14.9 15.0 15.8 -1.1 22.9 25.9 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 14.9 15.3 14.5 -0.4 38.1 39.2 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.1 15.3 16.0 -0.8 31.0 34.5 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 12.4 12.8 12.8 -0.4 35.7 37.6 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.2 16.8 -0.4 40.5 41.9 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.6 8.8 10.8 -0.5 32.5 35.3 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 14.0 14.1 16.1 -0.9 28.1 31.2 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.8 16.9 -0.1 46.7 47.1 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.3 17.4 0.4 60.5 58.1 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.5 15.3 15.3 -0.1 46.5 46.5 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 13.9 13.9 15.1 -1.3 22.1 25.4 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.2 13.5 -0.2 43.9 44.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 14.0 14.0 15.4 -1.3 21.8 25.0 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 12.7 12.8 15.2 -1.0 25.6 28.4 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.3 13.0 12.5 -0.2 44.6 44.9 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 14.7 14.9 16.6 -0.9 29.5 32.4 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------