***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 17.6 19.1 2.0 83.6 74.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 16.3 17.2 19.1 1.9 83.4 74.3 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 18.7 19.9 19.2 2.2 86.4 77.5 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 14.2 14.5 16.6 1.1 71.8 67.3 12.0 13.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.3 14.8 16.7 1.5 78.8 72.3 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.6 14.8 1.3 76.4 70.7 11.8 12.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 16.5 17.1 18.9 1.7 81.2 72.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 9.6 10.5 15.2 1.9 84.7 76.8 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 15.9 16.7 17.4 1.9 85.3 77.1 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 15.5 16.2 15.7 1.8 84.5 76.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 14.9 15.5 16.4 1.8 83.1 75.8 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 13.2 14.0 16.1 1.9 85.6 78.2 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.2 14.8 15.3 1.6 81.5 75.3 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 16.4 17.6 17.6 2.3 89.9 80.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 16.6 16.9 17.3 1.2 73.2 69.0 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.7 16.0 1.5 80.3 73.8 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 16.7 17.5 18.5 1.8 83.0 73.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 13.9 14.8 15.1 1.9 86.5 77.9 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 16.3 17.2 19.3 2.2 86.9 77.3 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 9.7 10.2 13.4 1.8 83.9 75.4 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 15.5 16.3 18.3 1.9 84.1 75.9 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 15.5 16.5 18.7 2.0 86.7 76.5 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 15.6 16.9 19.3 2.5 90.6 80.9 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 15.9 17.1 17.3 2.2 89.0 80.1 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.4 17.4 1.7 81.0 73.6 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 14.7 15.2 15.4 1.6 81.3 75.1 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 16.7 17.6 18.2 1.8 82.1 73.9 14.0 15.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 14.1 14.2 16.8 1.0 71.0 66.7 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 14.0 15.1 14.4 1.9 86.5 77.8 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 16.8 17.6 19.3 1.9 83.6 74.7 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------