***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 14.2 16.8 0.5 59.9 56.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.8 16.7 0.4 57.0 54.4 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.3 16.8 0.6 62.2 57.7 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.9 14.5 0.0 49.6 49.3 9.8 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 11.2 12.6 14.5 0.2 54.8 52.7 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.0 12.9 0.5 60.4 57.0 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.9 16.6 0.3 55.0 53.0 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.8 7.5 13.0 0.5 61.9 57.7 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 12.4 14.0 15.0 0.5 61.0 56.9 12.6 13.4 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.8 13.4 0.5 60.5 56.7 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 12.0 13.6 14.2 0.5 60.7 56.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.1 13.9 0.6 63.4 58.6 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.9 13.0 13.1 0.4 60.2 56.6 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 12.9 14.7 15.1 0.7 64.5 59.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 13.7 14.9 15.4 0.2 54.3 53.0 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 12.9 14.4 13.8 0.4 58.7 55.3 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.1 16.1 0.1 52.9 51.7 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 10.9 12.4 12.7 0.5 61.6 57.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.0 14.2 16.8 0.6 61.1 57.3 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.1 8.6 11.3 0.5 60.9 57.0 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 12.2 13.7 16.0 0.5 59.8 56.1 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.4 16.2 0.4 57.9 55.4 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.9 16.7 0.8 66.3 60.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 12.5 14.3 14.9 0.7 64.3 59.0 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.9 15.3 0.4 58.8 55.5 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.9 13.0 13.3 0.5 60.2 56.9 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 12.3 14.1 16.0 0.5 59.3 55.9 12.4 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 11.2 12.5 14.9 0.0 50.3 49.9 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.6 11.6 12.2 0.6 62.9 58.2 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.2 16.9 0.4 58.6 55.5 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------