***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 13.5 15.9 0.8 66.2 59.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.5 15.8 0.6 62.8 57.5 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.1 15.9 0.8 66.9 60.6 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.8 13.7 0.4 58.9 55.6 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.6 11.4 13.6 0.6 63.0 57.9 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.6 11.9 0.7 65.4 60.4 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.7 15.7 0.6 62.3 57.4 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.2 12.1 0.7 65.7 60.8 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.8 14.1 0.8 67.7 61.1 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.5 12.6 0.8 66.5 61.0 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.1 13.3 0.8 67.0 60.8 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.6 12.9 0.8 68.0 62.1 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 11.6 11.6 12.2 0.8 67.6 61.5 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.4 14.3 0.9 69.7 62.7 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 11.8 13.2 14.6 0.6 62.8 58.7 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.9 12.9 0.7 66.3 60.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.9 15.2 0.5 61.0 56.0 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.5 11.9 0.8 67.6 61.9 9.5 10.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.8 15.9 0.7 65.3 59.2 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.3 10.4 0.6 63.3 59.3 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 10.4 12.3 15.1 0.7 65.3 59.4 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.2 15.4 0.7 64.3 58.3 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.4 15.8 0.9 69.3 62.2 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.8 14.0 0.9 69.6 62.8 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.7 14.4 0.7 65.1 59.3 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.6 12.4 0.6 64.1 59.6 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.5 15.1 0.8 66.0 59.8 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.9 14.0 0.4 59.8 56.5 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.4 11.4 0.8 67.1 61.5 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.7 13.1 16.0 0.7 64.2 58.6 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------