***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 15.0 17.0 0.6 67.9 62.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.4 17.0 0.5 66.4 61.4 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 16.8 17.0 17.2 0.8 74.3 67.7 15.8 16.3 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.9 14.8 0.1 54.4 52.6 11.2 11.8 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.0 14.9 0.4 64.6 60.1 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.1 13.1 0.4 65.5 60.5 11.4 11.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.6 16.9 0.4 63.5 59.2 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 7.8 7.9 13.3 0.6 71.9 65.4 6.9 7.4 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 14.4 14.5 15.5 0.7 74.4 67.6 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 14.1 14.3 13.9 0.6 72.8 66.2 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 13.8 13.8 14.6 0.5 70.0 64.2 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.2 14.1 0.7 73.1 66.6 11.2 11.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.3 13.6 0.6 74.3 67.0 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 14.9 15.3 15.7 1.0 82.5 73.6 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.0 15.8 0.2 56.9 54.5 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.8 14.3 0.6 70.4 64.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.9 16.5 0.4 65.5 60.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 12.7 13.0 13.1 0.7 75.9 68.1 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.6 17.2 0.8 74.6 67.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.4 8.8 11.5 0.6 71.8 64.6 7.8 8.2 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.0 16.4 0.5 68.6 63.4 13.1 13.5 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.1 16.8 0.7 75.5 68.5 13.0 13.5 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 14.0 14.3 17.3 1.2 84.9 76.7 13.1 13.5 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 14.5 14.8 15.4 0.9 80.8 72.6 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.1 15.6 0.4 63.9 59.3 13.4 13.8 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.4 13.6 0.6 72.6 65.8 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.6 16.2 0.4 64.8 59.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.6 15.2 0.1 54.0 52.3 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.3 12.6 0.8 78.6 70.0 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 14.8 14.8 17.2 0.5 67.6 62.3 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------