***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 31.3 28.6 0.7 61.6 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 30.9 31.1 29.3 1.4 71.6 68.2 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 30.8 31.1 29.3 1.3 71.7 68.1 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 23.2 23.2 26.5 0.3 55.8 54.5 21.3 22.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 30.7 31.4 27.5 0.8 64.0 61.3 28.9 30.3 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 29.1 29.5 24.7 0.6 59.3 57.0 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 29.6 30.1 28.5 0.7 62.1 60.1 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 19.4 19.8 26.2 1.6 75.3 71.0 16.6 17.9 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 31.0 31.3 28.6 1.3 72.1 68.2 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.5 27.1 1.7 76.9 72.3 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 31.1 31.4 27.5 1.2 69.3 65.7 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 30.5 30.9 27.2 1.5 72.9 69.1 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 46 54 100 31.5 31.9 27.0 1.3 69.8 66.4 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 31.1 32.7 28.9 2.6 87.3 81.7 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.8 30.1 27.8 -0.2 47.3 47.3 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 31.2 32.3 27.3 1.1 67.5 64.3 29.4 30.8 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 30.3 30.7 28.9 1.5 73.9 70.2 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 29.9 31.0 26.5 2.2 82.7 77.2 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 30.7 31.5 29.8 2.0 79.3 75.0 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 26.1 27.0 24.4 2.0 80.9 75.8 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.4 28.6 0.7 61.1 59.2 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.2 29.5 2.2 82.4 77.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 30.9 32.3 30.3 2.6 87.0 81.8 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.7 28.3 2.1 82.9 77.4 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 30.3 30.0 26.9 0.1 51.7 51.2 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 30.1 31.2 26.5 1.2 67.5 64.6 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.7 27.5 0.2 54.1 53.2 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.8 30.5 27.1 0.1 52.1 51.4 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 25.6 26.9 25.8 2.3 84.3 78.6 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 30.7 30.7 29.2 1.1 67.7 64.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------