***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 31.3 30.2 2.8 83.3 74.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 30.1 31.6 30.5 3.1 85.8 75.4 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 30.4 32.0 30.8 3.3 87.2 77.9 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 24.1 24.9 28.6 2.4 80.4 73.5 20.9 22.3 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 31.5 33.0 29.0 3.0 84.9 76.9 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 30.3 32.2 27.1 3.2 88.8 80.5 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.9 30.0 2.7 83.3 73.3 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 19.4 21.6 27.9 3.6 90.6 81.0 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 30.8 32.5 29.5 3.3 87.2 78.5 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 30.8 32.8 28.5 3.6 89.8 80.4 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 31.2 33.2 29.0 3.5 89.1 80.3 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 30.5 32.7 29.0 3.6 90.2 81.2 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 31.7 33.7 28.5 3.5 89.2 80.9 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 30.2 32.6 29.6 3.9 91.9 80.7 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 31.3 32.1 28.9 2.2 79.1 72.9 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 32.4 34.2 28.7 3.3 88.0 79.6 28.9 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 29.3 31.0 30.1 3.0 86.7 75.5 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 29.7 32.0 27.8 3.9 91.4 81.1 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 29.9 31.6 31.0 3.4 88.3 77.8 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 25.8 28.3 25.6 3.6 91.0 80.4 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 30.7 32.1 30.0 3.0 84.5 76.3 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 29.9 31.8 30.4 3.4 89.4 77.7 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 30.0 32.0 31.1 3.9 91.0 80.5 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 30.1 32.4 29.5 3.9 91.3 81.1 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 30.7 32.0 28.8 2.7 83.0 75.0 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 31.2 32.8 28.4 3.2 87.5 79.7 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 30.2 31.3 29.3 2.7 82.9 74.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 31.6 32.4 28.9 2.3 79.7 73.3 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 25.3 27.7 26.8 3.9 91.5 80.6 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 30.0 31.4 30.7 3.1 85.3 75.5 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------