***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 27.7 27.9 1.6 72.2 64.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 27.7 28.2 28.2 1.8 73.9 65.9 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 27.8 28.3 28.3 1.9 75.0 67.2 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 20.8 20.7 26.3 1.2 67.0 62.3 17.9 19.3 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 28.5 28.6 26.5 1.5 71.0 65.2 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 27.3 27.6 24.4 1.7 73.2 66.4 24.5 25.8 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 27.4 27.7 27.8 1.6 71.9 64.4 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 16.8 17.3 25.1 1.9 75.2 67.8 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.3 26.9 1.8 73.8 67.1 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.4 25.7 1.9 75.4 68.0 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 28.3 28.8 26.3 1.8 74.5 67.6 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 27.7 28.2 26.2 1.9 74.9 67.8 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 28.7 29.1 25.7 1.8 73.9 67.2 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 27.8 28.6 26.8 2.2 77.5 68.8 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 27.5 28.2 26.8 1.1 66.4 61.8 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.6 26.0 1.7 72.8 66.5 26.1 27.6 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 26.9 27.5 27.8 1.8 74.6 66.3 23.9 25.3 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 26.9 27.5 25.0 2.1 76.5 68.4 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 27.6 28.2 28.5 2.0 76.1 67.6 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 23.1 23.6 22.9 1.9 74.7 66.7 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 28.0 28.2 27.5 1.6 71.8 65.4 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 27.5 28.3 28.1 2.1 77.1 68.4 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 27.6 28.5 28.4 2.2 78.3 69.4 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 27.5 28.2 26.7 2.1 77.5 69.0 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 27.9 28.1 26.5 1.5 70.9 64.3 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 28.4 28.5 25.7 1.6 71.2 65.4 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 27.5 27.8 27.0 1.5 71.3 64.2 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.5 28.2 26.5 1.1 66.0 61.9 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 22.4 23.0 24.0 2.0 75.8 67.7 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 27.6 28.0 28.3 1.8 73.6 65.7 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------