***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 28.6 28.3 1.5 80.2 73.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 28.2 29.0 28.7 1.8 83.9 76.2 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 28.3 29.1 28.8 1.9 85.8 78.0 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 21.5 21.8 26.7 1.2 75.3 69.3 19.6 20.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 29.1 29.8 27.1 1.6 82.2 74.8 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 27.9 28.7 24.9 1.7 84.9 76.7 25.8 26.7 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 27.8 28.4 28.2 1.5 79.8 72.6 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 17.2 18.5 25.8 2.2 90.2 81.2 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 28.5 29.4 27.6 1.9 86.8 78.6 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 28.3 29.6 26.4 2.2 90.1 81.4 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 28.9 30.0 27.0 2.0 87.6 79.2 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 28.2 29.5 26.9 2.1 89.1 80.6 26.0 26.9 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 29.3 30.3 26.4 2.1 87.4 79.2 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 28.2 29.8 27.6 2.5 92.9 84.5 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.1 27.3 1.0 71.9 66.7 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 29.9 30.8 26.8 1.9 85.7 77.6 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 27.5 28.3 28.3 1.8 85.4 77.4 25.7 26.5 27.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 27.3 28.8 25.7 2.4 92.4 83.4 25.4 26.2 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 28.1 29.1 29.1 2.1 87.8 79.9 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 23.6 25.1 23.6 2.2 91.3 81.6 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 28.5 29.1 28.1 1.6 81.4 74.2 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 28.1 29.2 28.6 2.2 89.4 81.4 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 28.1 29.4 29.2 2.5 91.9 84.0 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 27.9 29.4 27.4 2.4 92.1 83.6 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 28.5 29.0 26.8 1.3 77.6 70.7 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 28.8 29.6 26.3 1.8 84.5 76.8 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 28.1 28.5 27.4 1.4 78.1 71.2 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 29.1 29.3 27.0 1.1 73.5 67.9 27.2 28.1 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 23.0 24.7 24.8 2.4 92.7 83.3 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 28.1 28.8 28.7 1.7 82.6 75.2 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------