***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 25.4 20.2 55.3 36.4 31.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 23.9 29.5 22.1 62.0 38.8 35.4 26.0 36.7 49.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 25.3 33.2 21.5 60.2 38.5 33.3 29.2 42.7 59.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 33.2 45.5 21.8 65.4 44.2 35.5 38.0 49.6 62.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 19.4 26.8 21.1 62.1 39.8 32.6 22.8 33.7 46.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 18.7 29.9 28.9 70.7 43.8 37.0 22.2 34.9 50.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 23.4 28.3 22.5 61.8 38.6 35.6 24.7 36.2 49.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 45.8 54.5 24.6 65.2 37.1 32.9 50.3 68.8 90.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 26.1 33.5 22.0 62.1 38.6 31.8 29.7 41.6 55.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 34.5 41.2 25.7 64.2 37.8 32.6 37.8 49.6 62.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 24.4 33.0 20.5 70.3 44.3 36.0 26.7 36.5 47.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 23.7 30.9 19.4 68.0 41.6 34.9 26.1 36.2 47.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 20.3 29.6 23.1 70.6 42.4 35.5 23.3 35.1 48.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 38.2 45.8 27.8 62.5 36.8 33.8 42.8 57.1 73.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 11.8 22.3 20.9 72.0 46.4 35.1 14.8 24.5 36.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 20.0 31.9 22.2 73.3 45.6 37.2 23.5 35.1 49.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 25.3 28.5 21.0 58.6 37.1 34.6 26.0 35.9 47.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 27.1 32.7 30.5 63.3 34.9 31.9 31.3 44.4 59.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 25.7 32.5 21.8 62.1 39.4 35.5 28.4 40.2 54.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 36.7 42.5 35.0 66.7 33.4 31.3 42.2 55.5 70.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 22.8 31.0 20.1 59.1 39.6 32.5 26.2 39.4 55.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 30.8 33.5 21.2 57.6 35.0 33.0 32.3 44.1 57.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 25.8 34.7 22.2 62.7 40.7 36.0 29.7 41.1 54.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 33.9 41.7 26.8 62.9 36.9 32.9 38.6 52.0 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 20.4 28.2 23.6 59.7 39.4 33.1 23.7 36.4 52.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 19.5 27.8 19.8 73.3 45.3 38.1 21.6 30.4 40.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 24.3 31.0 23.8 58.1 37.6 32.9 27.6 41.2 57.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 18.0 28.2 21.5 69.8 45.7 36.0 21.5 30.4 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 44.2 51.8 33.0 64.8 34.8 32.2 50.3 66.6 85.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 22.9 28.6 22.2 61.6 38.5 34.8 25.2 36.6 49.8 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------