***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 9999.0 0.4 2.2 18.3 22.0 15.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 1.2 1.2 2.2 19.8 23.9 17.2 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 1.8 1.9 2.3 21.4 24.2 16.3 3.1 6.7 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.0 2.9 3.8 41.7 40.8 29.7 1.9 4.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 1.1 1.3 2.6 28.8 29.3 20.4 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 1.7 3.3 3.9 42.9 42.2 25.3 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 1.4 1.5 2.3 20.5 25.6 19.0 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 2.4 3.3 2.7 30.5 29.0 18.1 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 1.2 1.5 2.4 27.3 27.1 17.2 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 1.8 2.4 2.9 29.1 27.7 17.6 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 1.2 1.6 2.2 30.9 31.8 20.3 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 1.2 2.0 2.3 32.8 32.0 18.8 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 1.0 2.0 3.5 44.0 38.4 23.8 1.4 3.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 3.1 3.5 3.0 24.4 25.9 17.9 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.4 2.3 3.4 43.8 40.0 27.9 1.6 4.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 1.1 2.0 3.1 41.0 39.0 26.3 1.4 3.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 1.2 1.4 2.1 19.1 26.3 18.8 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 1.7 2.0 3.4 29.6 26.4 16.9 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 1.5 1.6 2.3 21.4 24.7 17.2 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 2.0 2.4 3.7 32.9 26.2 17.1 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 1.3 1.8 2.5 25.8 27.8 17.4 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 1.3 1.5 2.3 20.3 25.4 18.2 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 1.9 2.3 2.4 23.4 26.6 17.9 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 2.2 2.8 3.0 27.3 27.3 17.8 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 1.1 1.7 3.5 30.0 32.2 22.6 1.7 4.3 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.7 2.5 4.0 55.4 44.4 30.0 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 1.4 1.9 3.0 23.5 27.1 19.1 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.5 2.1 3.5 42.7 40.4 28.9 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 2.2 2.6 3.7 30.5 25.7 16.3 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 1.5 1.5 2.2 19.5 22.9 16.9 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------