***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 9.3 4.1 38.6 42.3 29.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.2 7.1 6.0 66.8 53.1 38.5 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.0 4.6 4.2 44.5 43.4 30.4 3.0 6.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.6 5.5 4.3 51.5 47.4 27.9 2.7 6.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 1.7 3.3 4.1 47.4 44.7 27.2 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.5 6.4 7.2 72.1 53.8 34.6 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.4 6.2 64.6 51.9 37.4 2.8 6.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 3.8 7.3 5.0 55.4 44.6 29.7 4.2 9.2 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.1 4.1 4.2 45.4 44.1 28.4 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.7 5.0 5.3 53.6 45.9 30.3 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.1 4.7 4.1 58.2 48.4 29.2 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.9 3.9 3.8 58.7 47.5 29.2 2.1 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.0 4.9 4.9 66.9 52.2 32.0 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.1 9.6 7.4 68.3 51.9 36.1 4.0 8.8 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.4 4.3 4.6 68.4 54.2 29.1 1.6 3.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.0 5.0 4.8 67.4 53.1 32.2 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 4.3 8.9 5.9 66.7 52.2 39.0 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 2.9 6.4 6.8 58.2 46.9 32.0 3.3 7.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.5 8.1 5.7 65.0 52.6 37.5 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 3.1 6.3 7.9 60.8 46.1 32.2 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.2 3.2 3.5 37.1 40.8 27.1 2.2 5.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.0 10.5 6.1 67.0 52.0 39.1 5.1 9.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.1 5.7 65.0 52.3 36.6 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 2.7 5.4 5.9 56.3 46.5 31.9 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.3 3.5 4.7 41.3 42.2 29.3 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.1 5.0 3.6 66.3 50.7 30.5 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.6 5.6 5.3 43.5 43.8 31.1 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.0 5.2 4.7 65.0 52.9 29.4 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 3.3 7.8 7.9 63.6 49.1 33.4 3.7 8.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.4 4.8 5.6 59.3 50.3 36.2 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------