***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 10.8 7.4 89.3 61.8 36.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 4.7 12.4 7.6 79.4 58.8 39.6 5.0 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 4.0 14.8 7.9 84.5 59.9 36.1 4.6 10.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 4.2 14.8 7.6 88.8 61.4 31.6 4.7 9.8 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.6 14.7 7.6 86.4 60.2 32.0 5.0 10.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 3.0 10.6 10.0 79.8 58.9 33.8 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.1 8.4 7.5 80.6 58.7 39.2 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 8.0 20.1 8.4 79.2 57.7 35.9 9.3 16.1 25.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 4.2 14.5 7.9 83.9 59.3 31.7 4.9 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 5.5 16.8 8.8 80.8 58.1 34.4 6.6 12.6 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.9 13.7 7.3 92.3 61.9 34.0 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 4.0 12.1 7.0 86.9 60.9 34.7 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 3.8 13.2 8.3 85.4 60.5 34.7 4.8 9.3 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 6.1 17.1 9.6 79.1 58.0 38.3 7.0 13.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.3 7.1 7.4 94.2 63.5 28.9 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.6 13.6 7.9 91.6 62.2 34.2 4.1 8.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 4.5 10.0 7.0 69.9 55.3 37.9 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 4.8 12.9 10.6 79.4 57.8 37.2 5.5 10.1 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.7 10.2 7.7 79.6 58.7 38.5 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 6.2 15.0 11.5 76.4 55.7 38.5 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 3.3 12.8 7.4 87.9 60.9 32.9 3.8 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.4 11.4 6.8 67.1 54.1 36.9 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 4.0 12.9 7.9 80.5 58.7 37.3 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 6.1 18.6 9.6 81.6 59.1 37.1 7.0 13.5 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 3.7 14.2 8.3 90.5 61.8 34.8 3.9 9.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 3.1 10.0 6.5 83.9 60.3 35.1 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.5 13.2 8.4 91.1 62.2 37.1 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.6 9.7 7.7 90.6 62.1 30.4 3.4 6.4 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 6.1 19.3 11.2 79.9 57.7 38.6 7.0 14.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.3 11.1 7.8 83.4 60.0 39.3 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------