***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 13.6 6.6 112.4 69.5 44.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 9.1 6.3 104.5 66.8 47.2 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.7 12.0 7.1 113.9 69.6 44.7 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 14.3 6.1 83.1 60.8 38.9 4.9 9.9 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.1 10.4 6.8 89.7 63.6 40.4 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.2 12.5 7.8 83.8 61.0 40.4 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.3 12.0 6.4 104.8 66.8 47.1 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.3 24.3 8.5 92.2 63.8 42.7 7.3 14.9 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.7 11.2 7.4 95.7 65.5 40.8 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.7 12.1 8.7 92.7 64.0 42.0 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.0 12.3 6.8 98.4 66.0 41.7 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.4 14.3 6.3 89.8 63.4 41.8 4.5 9.2 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.0 12.0 6.4 83.2 60.8 40.3 4.3 8.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.9 11.6 7.8 84.7 61.1 42.7 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.0 7.2 5.4 82.7 60.2 37.2 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.6 12.0 6.4 91.5 63.6 41.3 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.1 10.8 6.0 102.1 66.3 48.5 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 12.2 9.7 83.3 60.6 42.2 4.5 8.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.6 13.5 6.1 100.7 65.8 45.7 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.4 17.2 12.0 91.0 62.9 44.8 6.3 11.6 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.7 11.8 6.7 104.8 67.6 41.0 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.3 13.2 6.0 95.2 64.4 47.3 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.7 10.0 6.1 94.1 64.0 43.0 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.1 11.3 8.3 90.1 62.9 42.8 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.1 11.3 7.1 95.4 65.1 41.8 2.7 6.3 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.9 9.2 5.7 85.4 61.8 40.0 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.9 10.6 7.2 102.2 66.8 43.8 2.5 5.7 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.5 9.2 5.6 81.1 60.1 38.3 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.6 19.6 10.2 82.6 60.3 42.4 7.2 13.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.2 12.6 6.6 109.5 68.2 46.7 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------