***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 17.0 18.2 20.6 2.9 93.1 91.2 14.9 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 16.8 18.0 20.1 2.7 92.4 89.9 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 19.3 20.1 20.1 2.3 88.5 86.3 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 15.2 15.6 17.0 1.4 77.0 74.7 12.8 13.9 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 15.0 15.3 17.4 1.3 77.9 75.9 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 13.2 13.6 13.9 0.6 63.9 62.9 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 17.1 18.3 20.5 2.9 92.4 90.2 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.2 14.2 1.0 73.4 71.7 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 16.3 16.7 17.2 1.4 80.6 78.4 14.5 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 16.0 16.2 15.3 1.1 76.0 73.9 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 15.4 15.6 16.4 1.0 71.9 70.1 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 13.6 13.8 15.5 1.0 73.6 72.1 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 14.1 14.1 14.5 0.2 55.2 54.4 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 16.8 17.3 17.1 1.6 84.1 82.0 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.1 17.3 18.4 1.1 73.1 71.4 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 15.9 16.1 15.4 0.4 59.2 58.3 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 17.3 18.5 20.0 2.9 93.3 90.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 14.5 14.7 14.7 1.2 78.6 76.7 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 16.6 17.5 19.9 2.4 90.6 87.9 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 10.2 10.5 12.7 1.0 77.3 75.2 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 15.9 16.3 18.5 1.5 80.4 78.4 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 16.1 16.9 19.8 2.4 90.1 87.4 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 16.0 16.7 19.7 2.3 90.2 87.4 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 16.5 16.9 17.0 1.5 82.1 80.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 16.5 17.0 19.1 2.1 85.5 83.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.8 14.0 0.5 63.3 62.0 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 17.4 18.6 19.8 2.6 90.3 88.5 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 14.0 14.6 16.8 0.8 67.7 66.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 14.3 14.6 13.9 1.1 79.0 77.2 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 17.2 18.3 20.5 2.7 92.0 89.6 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------