***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.9 18.4 0.8 63.8 59.9 14.3 15.2 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.6 18.0 0.7 61.8 58.0 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.9 18.3 0.5 59.4 56.5 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.5 15.7 0.4 57.1 55.2 12.0 13.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.3 15.7 0.1 51.0 50.6 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.7 13.5 0.2 55.5 53.9 11.8 12.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.0 18.4 0.8 64.2 60.2 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.3 13.2 0.0 51.0 50.5 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.7 15.6 0.0 50.5 50.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.5 14.0 0.0 50.4 50.1 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.0 15.2 0.1 51.8 51.2 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.3 14.2 0.1 51.9 51.2 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.4 13.8 0.1 51.4 50.7 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.3 15.5 0.1 52.2 51.3 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.4 17.5 0.7 64.4 60.8 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.1 14.6 0.1 51.8 51.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.2 17.8 0.8 63.6 59.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.7 13.2 0.0 49.1 49.0 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.6 18.0 0.5 59.9 56.8 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.8 11.3 0.0 49.6 49.6 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.5 17.0 0.1 52.1 51.4 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.0 17.9 0.7 62.3 58.6 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.9 17.8 0.5 58.9 56.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.9 15.5 0.1 52.1 51.3 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.9 16.9 0.3 55.5 53.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.9 13.5 0.2 54.5 53.0 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.9 17.6 0.6 60.5 57.6 14.0 15.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.7 16.1 0.4 58.4 56.0 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.6 12.6 0.0 50.0 49.9 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.2 18.4 0.7 63.2 59.2 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------