***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.4 17.5 0.7 63.1 59.0 12.8 13.7 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.1 17.4 0.7 63.0 59.3 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.1 17.5 0.5 60.0 56.8 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.5 14.8 0.5 59.2 56.6 9.8 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.5 14.3 0.1 52.1 51.3 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.7 12.7 0.2 54.0 53.1 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.5 17.6 0.8 64.9 60.9 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.8 12.2 0.0 49.3 49.9 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.5 14.4 0.1 51.2 50.5 12.6 13.4 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.3 12.9 0.0 49.3 49.5 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.1 13.7 0.1 51.8 51.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.5 12.8 0.1 51.5 51.1 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.5 12.2 0.0 49.2 49.0 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.0 14.5 0.0 50.9 50.5 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.4 16.2 0.6 63.1 59.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.1 13.2 0.1 53.0 51.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.6 17.1 0.8 63.7 60.1 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.9 12.0 0.0 50.4 50.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.1 17.2 0.6 61.0 57.7 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.9 9.9 -0.1 46.5 47.9 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.4 16.0 0.2 53.8 52.6 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.6 17.0 0.6 61.4 58.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.5 16.9 0.4 58.4 55.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.7 14.3 0.2 53.3 52.4 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.9 15.8 0.4 57.2 55.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.9 12.4 0.3 57.3 54.9 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.3 16.6 0.6 61.6 58.1 12.4 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.0 15.0 0.5 59.5 56.7 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.2 10.7 11.4 -0.1 47.9 48.8 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.5 17.6 0.8 63.8 59.7 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------